At the site of the Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum a round table discussion “Russia 2030: Strategy and Forecasts” was held with the participation of Minister of Regional Development of Russia
Regional Development Minister Igor Slyunyaev took part in the round table ” Russia 2030: Strategy and Forecasts”, held as part of the business program of XI Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum.
Moderator of the discussion about the problems of long-term economic growth was Oleg Goshchansky, the Chairman of the Board and Managing Partner of KPMG in Russia and the CIS. Specifying the direction of the discussion, he said that the old question “Russia, where are you rushing?” today is not relevant because of the low rates, demonstrated by the results of Russia’s GDP in 2013 – 1.3%. At this rate by 2030 Russia’s share of global GDP could be reduced from 4 % to 3.4 %. Optimal growth in order to successfully solve the problems facing the country is 5-5,3%. The question is – how to provide it? The discussion was all around it.
Regional Development Minister Igor Slyunyaev opened exchanges of opinions by reminder: “Patristic tradition says that God can be found everywhere, even in hell, there is one place where it does not come across – it’s the human imagination.”
– Start with forecasting and alignment strategy, so that it does not resemble a fantasy, then we will find that what we should find, – the Minister said.
The basis for strategic planning, in his opinion, should be the federal law on strategic planning (project it is currently under consideration in the State Duma) and the federal state information system of territory planning (FSIS TP), which has already started work and is available to users via the Internet – resource of Ministry of Regional Development.
– First, we make predictions then punctually refine these predictions. Forecasts accompany the budget process. Long-term prospects are formed on the basis of forecasts of economic and social development, including those by the World Bank, EBRD, OECD. We need to go from forecasts to making foundations of the government policy in the Arctic and in the North Caucasus, Siberia and the Far East, in relation to each region of the country. We need to create a strategy for their development, – said Igor Slyunyaev.
Head of Regional Development informed the audience about the task to further define the development strategies of federal districts adopted in 2009 – 2011, where the federal priorities must be reflected. These priorities are indicated in presidential decrees as of May last year.
What hinders investment to the national economy? Asking this question, Minister of Regional Development listed the following factors: expensive loans, high cost of natural monopolies, lack of infrastructure, sometimes excessive activity of law enforcement bodies. “This makes any project implementation difficult” said the Head of the Regional Development Ministry.
During the discussion, a lot of attention was paid to progress in IT technologies. Offering not to exaggerate the importance of this sector in the country’s life, Igor Slyunyaev noticed: “Only 1% of the accumulated data is used in the management process, so do not overestimate it. IT company founded in a garage can be more expensive than assets of KAMAZ, but it should not be so. What are we going to eat, what are we going to sit on and to write with? “.
IT company certainly can produce significant cash flow, but we cannot ignore and do without forecasting the real economy, the sphere of material production. This approach expressed at the round table “Russia 2030: strategy and forecasts” was met by applause.
The roundtable drew attention to the fact that the old growth factors have stopped working: a supply of energy and labor resources will not be expanded. Meanwhile, new growth factors – the transition to investment-oriented and innovative economy – have not been switched on yet. And it is important to accelerate their “switching on”.
The conversation was attended by Director for Russia and CIS of Conference “Euromoney” Christopher Ostrowski, Director of Regional Development of “MicrosoftRus” Kirill Semenikhin, Chairman of JSC “UniCredit Bank” Mikhail Alekseev and other Russian and international experts, representatives of the business community.